What to expect in 2023 for Central Alberta's real estate market?

Happy New Year! I bet you are wondering what is going on with real estate here in Central Alberta. The media seems to be confusing and mostly fear mongering… but I am here to clear the air. Let’s dive right in. Yes things slowed down a tad… Central Alberta’s residential sales were down 3.54% from 2021 HOWEVER - excluding 2021, (since it was an anomaly of a year anyways), sales were the HIGHEST they have ever been in the previous 9 years. 2022 sales even trumped the last record breaking year for sales which was in 2014 (5641 sales compared to 5345 number of sales in 2014).

If we narrow down the stats from Central Alberta to Red Deer only, Red Deer actually beat 2021 in sales (1922 sales, up 2.86% from 2021) but 2022 wasn’t enough to beat 2014’s record. When comparing to 2014, Red Deer saw a decrease by 4.33% in sales. Sylvan Lake was another example where sales surpassed 2021. But Sylvan Lake outperformed 2014’s sales in 2022 by a whopping 15%!

Overall, Central Alberta’s residential real estate market remained strong in 2022 despite some economic challenges arising in the last two quarters. I would suggest that Alberta’s record-breaking net migration has helped keep Alberta’s economy going in 2022 despite the raising interest rates and rising inflation. People are flocking to Alberta from BC & Ontario due to affordability & lifestyle. The average sale price is also at the highest it’s been in the last 10 years sitting at $348,811 for the end of 2022. Although, still extremely affordable especially considering the major cities in Ontario & BC which are at almost triple our averages for a home.

We are also seeing the highest average sale prices for Red Deer, Sylvan Lake, Blackfalds & Lacombe in the last 10 years. Higher interest rates have slowed our sales down during the second and last quarter of 2022 however, the number of active listings remained historically low, that coupled with migration from out of provinces, has kept our pricing extremely stable. Experts believe “high” interest rates are here to stay and suggesting we get used to 5-6% as the new normal. We don’t expect 2023 to break any sales records although, this is hard to predict. We certainly believe the residential sector will continue steadily and more balanced especially if we see more inventory surface (number of active listings start to increase). Of course, economic factors will come into play, and we will have to see how that goes truthfully, nobody really knows not even the experts. If rates stay put and inflation gets under control, we are hoping things will continue strongly for Alberta. Income generating properties are doing well due to the high demand of rentals with limited options for renters thus low vacancy rates. If you are thinking of selling, now is a fantastic time. If you are thinking of buying, there’s great opportunity as Red Deer & Sylvan Lake remain extremely affordable for the quality of life provided. There are some great opportunities (in my opinion) to buy in smaller communities such as Blackfalds & Lacombe that are quickly growing in population and amenities. Blackfalds is getting a high school!

Please feel free to send me an email or give us a call if you are wanting to discuss the market, your real estate goals or have a general discussion!


Melissa Morin (Team Lead & Realtor @ Melissa Morin Team w/ Century 21 Maximum

Get in touch: Melissa.morin@century21.ca 403-318-5665

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